Now that is the million dollar question! Unfortunately too many variables to answer. I am glad you posted this though because if there is ever any time that we need to stay off the trails it is now. And it is the hardest because we are all itching to get out and ride. But when the ground thaws it is complete soup. No firmness at all. Huge ruts will be left in the trails and cause massive erosion this time of year. This is exacerbated by the melting snow and typically wet and rainy time of year. If your tires are ever leaving more than the tread pattern in the dirt then the trails should not be used by any users.
As to your post: On a typical year around first week of April the trail is ready to ride. There have been years when the trail was dry and dusty by now. I expect this year to be on the other end of the spectrum unless we get a dramatic change in weather. The frost is also extremely deep this year and will take a long time to come out. As of yesterday the majority of the trail still had 3-4" of ice to melt. Then the ground needs to thaw. Then it needs to dry enough to firm up. Then we can ride!
My best guess this year is mid-April. But again, lots of variables can affect that, and they all revolve around the weather. A warm rain would speed this process up a lot. But as I write this it is alternating between sleet and snow.
